How to Read the Projections
Learn how to interpret our projected prices and lines, compare them with sportsbook markets, and evaluate differences between our numbers and the available odds.
Understanding the Numbers
Foundry Markets provides independent projections for game outcomes, point spreads, game totals, and team totals across MLB, NBA, NFL, and NHL.
Our projections give you a reference point for comparing the lines and odds offered by sportsbooks. The goal is to understand where our numbers differ from the market and whether those differences warrant a closer look.
All projections are estimates, not guarantees. A difference between a projection and a sportsbook line does not automatically mean a bet offers value.
Moneyline
A moneyline bet is a wager on which team wins the game. The odds indicate how much a winning bet returns relative to the amount wagered.
Compare Foundry Markets' projected moneyline odds with the odds available at your sportsbook. For this comparison, the projected odds should represent a fair price without a bookmaker margin.
| Team | FM Projected Odds | Sportsbook Odds | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle | -177 | -140 | More favorable sportsbook price |
| Denver | +177 | +120 | Less favorable sportsbook price |
Payout Comparison:The best way to test money line projections is through a payout comparison.
A $100 bet on Seattle with our model's projected odds of -177 would result in a theoretical win of $56.50. Now compare that same $100 to the market odds of -140 and a win would yield $71.43. The market odds yield a higher payout for the same $100 bet, signaling our model spots value on Seattle's money line.
What to look for
- Compare odds for the same team across both sources.
- For favorites, if our model's odds are a larger negative number (further from +100) than what is available on the market, our model signals value on the favorite.
- For underdogs, if our model's odds are a smaller positive number (closer to +100) than what is available on the market, our model signals value on the underdog.
Point Spread
A point spread gives one team a virtual scoring advantage or disadvantage. The favorite must win by more than the spread to cover, while the underdog can cover by staying within the spread or winning outright.
Compare our projected spread with the sportsbook's line for the same team. Also compare the odds attached to each line.
| Market | Seattle Spread | Denver Spread |
|---|---|---|
| FM Projection | -4.5 | +4.5 |
| Sportsbook | -2.5 | +2.5 |
What to look for
- For favorites, if our model projects a larger negative number (further from 0) than what is available on the market, our model signals value on the favorite.
- For underdogs, if our model projects a smaller positive number (closer to 0) than what is available on the market, our model signals value on the underdog.
- If our model and the market come to a consensus on the spread (same number), compare the associated odds, not just the spread itself.
Game Total
A game total, also called an over/under, is a wager on the combined points, runs, or goals scored by both teams.
Compare Foundry Markets' projected total with the sportsbook's available total. A projection above the market line may warrant evaluating the Over; a projection below the market line may warrant evaluating the Under.
| Market | Total | Over Odds | Under Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| FM Projection | 44.5 | -107 | +107 |
| Sportsbook | 40.5 | -110 | -110 |
What to look for
- If our projection is above the market total, investigate the Over.
- If our projection is below the market total, investigate the Under.
- If our model and the market come to a consensus on the total (same number), compare the associated odds, not just the total itself.
Team Totals
A team total focuses on the points, runs, or goals scored by one team rather than the combined score of the entire game.
Compare Foundry Markets' projected team total with the sportsbook's available team total. A projection above the market team total may warrant evaluating the Over; a projection below the market team total may warrant evaluating the Under.
| Market | Seattle Total | Over Odds | Under Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| FM Projection | 24.5 | -100 | +100 |
| Sportsbook | 21.5 | -110 | -110 |
What to look for
- Confirm that both numbers refer to the same team.
- If our projection is above the market team total, investigate the Over.
- If our projection is below the market team total, investigate the Under.
- If our model and the market come to a consensus on the team total (same number), compare the associated odds, not just the total itself.
A Simple Process for Comparing Markets
- Find the matchup. Locate the game in the Foundry Markets projections.
- Choose the market. Identify the moneyline, spread, game total, or team total.
- Compare the numbers. Review our projected price, spread, or total against the sportsbook's offer.
- Evaluate the price. A favorable line can still be unattractive if the odds are too expensive.